Coffee seems like such an obvious product. You order it, make it, drink it. But behind that cup lies a world that is anything but stable. Failed harvests, increasingly extreme weather conditions, changing regulations, and markets that react quickly to every new signal.
Anyone who has been following the coffee market in recent years knows one thing for sure: calm is the exception rather than the rule. And that has direct consequences for companies that purchase, process, or resell coffee.
To understand where we are headed in 2026, it is important to first reflect on what we have seen in 2025.
What we saw in 2025: high prices became the new normal
At the beginning of 2025, coffee prices remained high. The main cause was persistent scarcity combined with unfavorable weather conditions in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam. Drought, variable harvest quality, and uncertainty about volumes kept the market tense.
There was a brief period of relief during the year. Prices fell temporarily, mainly due to improved expectations regarding harvests and logistics. However, this respite proved to be short-lived. As the year progressed, prices rose again and stabilized at a significantly higher level than in previous years.
In retrospect, many predictions largely came true. Harvests in South America were disappointing, transport and logistics remained expensive, and stricter rules on sustainable production put additional pressure on the chain. Exchange rates also played a role: producer countries saw their currencies strengthen, which made exports less attractive and pushed prices up further.
For many companies, 2025 marked a turning point. Coffee became structurally more expensive and price certainty became more important than chasing the lowest daily price. Collaborating with suppliers who actively purchase, manage stocks, and spread risks proved essential to keeping costs manageable.
Looking ahead: what does this mean for the coffee market in 2026?
The developments of 2025 will largely continue in 2026. The coffee market remains sensitive to disruptions, with climate and regulations playing an increasingly important role.
Climate remains a determining factor
Extreme weather is no longer an exception, but part of the new normal. Arabica in particular remains vulnerable to temperature fluctuations, drought, and disease pressure. This creates ongoing uncertainty about quality and availability, while global demand continues to grow. Persistent heat and transportation problems are also causing significant price increases for coffee beans, as reported in the media by NU.nl.
Robusta offers a little more stability in that respect, but pressure is increasing there too. For many buyers, it is becoming increasingly important to combine countries of origin and coffee types wisely in order to spread the risk.
World Bank forecast: slight cooling possible
At the same time, it's not just "higher, higher, higher." For 2026, the World Bank expects coffee prices (and Arabica in particular) to cool down as production recovers and stocks are rebuilt. The idea behind this is simple: after a period of peak prices, there is often less room for further increases, while a normalizing supply takes the pressure off. However, this remains an assumption. In the coffee world, a single bad weather season, delays in logistics, or stricter chain requirements can quickly reverse that trend.
New regulations change the rules of the game
The new EUDR legislation, intended to combat deforestation and climate impact, will soon come into force. For coffee cultivation and purchasing, this means additional rules, higher production costs, and ultimately higher prices. At the same time, it calls for better systems, more cooperation, and careful selection in the chain. Not every producer can immediately comply with this, which may limit the supply of certain coffees. For buyers, this means making smart choices, checking carefully, and being less dependent on a single source.
At CoffeeClick, we already work with Fairtrade, UTZ-certified, and EKO coffee, and we are also affiliated with Circulair West. In this way, we actively take responsibility for a sustainable production chain and guarantee both quality and sustainability. More information about our sustainability policy can be found on our Sustainability page.
From price to strategy
Whereas coffee purchasing used to revolve mainly around price, in 2026 it will increasingly be about strategy. Consider:
Companies that respond to this in a timely manner are better able to withstand fluctuations and surprises.
Read more about how your company can deal with rising coffee prices in a smart way.
Conclusion
The coffee market has undergone structural changes in recent years. What became clear in 2025 will continue in 2026: coffee remains sensitive to climate, regulations, and geopolitics. Prices fluctuate, but more importantly, how you as a company deal with those fluctuations.
Those who look ahead invest not only in coffee, but also in insight, cooperation, and flexibility. That makes the difference between reacting to the market and staying in control of it.
